So impressive

In the past there was a clear tendency in games between So and Nakamura and that was a draw without a fight. It felt like they had a secret contract to not hurt each other. This time it was different, Nakamura simply got outprepared. The key to the game is the word “compensation”. Wesley sacrficied two pawns, where the engines think he doesn’t have enough compensation. Then Naka gave an exchange back, where the engines think he has enough compensation. Both evaluations turned out to be wrong. This game shows how modern chess works. It’s about finding lines that get misevaluated by engines and of course players who uncritically play such lines.

The other games pretty much turned out as expected. Svidler tried to play the Marshall in order to draw. Topalov played a sideline and made his opponent think on his own. Svidler took over an hour at one point, blundered and basically forced Topalov to collect the full point. Giri, who plays a lot of 1.e4 as of late, blew an advantage in the Najdorf and drew MLV. Ding drew Aronjan in a game that nobody cared about. Last but not least, Fabi surprised Anand with the Winawer, but Anand bailed out and managed to draw. That was an interesting decision based on the fact that nobody on the highest level plays the French, but nobody knows how to beat it either.

How did the first round change the outlook? If Wesley draws every other game, he will finish +1 and he knows it. I expect him to play for a win against Topalov, but that’s the only risk that he will take in the remainder of the tournament. Naka on the other hand will raise his risk level to get back in the race, but pushing the random button in this field will probably backfire. Aronjan relies on people giving him chances, but I don’t see this happening. Anand has a similar style, but he gets more chances, because people think he is on the decline and will take slightly more risks against him. Caruana and MLV are in the race to win it. Giri and Ding are on schedule to draw it. Topalov will just play for fun and look what happens and Svidler will have to fight hard to keep his face. I am still waiting for him to show anger, probably for the first time in his life. In Baseball there is a saying: “Nice guys finish last”. Baseball isn’t Cricket, but it’s close.

Round 2 predictions:
Caruana-Topalov 1-0
Ding-So 1/2
MVL-Anand 1/2
Nakamura-Giri 1/2
Aronjan-Svidler 1/2