How to improve?

First of all, there is no magic bullet. Second, not everyone can become a strong chessplayer, regardless how much effort they put up. The promise that you can reach any goal if you just try hard enough, is a lie. It’s a nice lie though, because the liar can always tell you that you didn’t try hard enough. Nevertheless, there is a method that is currently supported by pretty much every website:

Openings + Tactics

This approach has a lot going for it. People end up in bad positions because they lack opening knowledge and if there is a winning tactic, they usually overlook it. If you make a top 10 list with problems, then these would easily be the top 2.

Here is the issue: If your opponent plays a suboptimal move in the opening and takes you out of book, which happens a lot actually, then there may not be any tactics available, unless you are playing super sharp openings, but even in sharp openings there are quiet lines. This is actually precisely how Magnus Carlsen wins games.

What is my suggestion then? The forced draw is not a perfect solution either. Against strong opponents the threat of the forced draw will force them to make minor concessions and go for slightly inferior variations. Eventually you need the technique to convert small positional advantages. You need to know what to do when there is no tactical solution, because this situation occurs by far most often. Unfortunately there is no quick fix for that. Even a structured thinking process cannot make you better than you are.

The problem is very similar to the Dunning-Kruger-effect. You are basically lacking the strength to find your own mistakes, because if had it already, you wouldn’t make these mistakes in the first place. The best example is the club amateur who has something like Elo 1650 for his whole life. These guys simply cannot figure out what is wrong, because if they could, they would have Elo 1850.

This means what you proabably have already guessed: You need external help from books, your engine, your trainer, or all of the above. Then the Pareto-principle will kick in. You will make rapid progress in the beginning but then slowly hit a wall. At that point something in your routine or in your life has to change.

This brings me to Vincent Keymer…

 
Update: It is almost comical, isn’t it?

To be fair, he was winning at one point, but once again he blundered in time trouble. While other prodigies are showing flashy ratings in bullet, Keymer is simply too slow. Is his brain too slow, or is he thinking about too many pointless subvariations? It is pretty clear that Leko is suffering from some sort of paranoia, because his opponent could have better prep. Maybe Keymer got infected.

If you are pressimistic and always expect your opponent to know everything and see everything, you are turning even an average opponent into Stockfish. Players on the other end of the spectrum have it much easier. Kramnik is always better. Nakamura always has at least a draw. For them a loss is like a bad beat in Poker. They flopped a set, but their opponent hit the flush on the river.

It’s kinda funny, but this also applies to the amateur level. When I was playing in the Oberliga and looked up my opponents in the database, it felt like preparing against an engine, because I knew that they were preparing with engines against me as well. When you look at the resulting game though, it felt like two patzers were playing each other. Too much respect for your opponent is bad.