Expectation

If you ever wondered what Elo-difference means in expectation, here are some key odds*:

50 points difference = 5:4 odds
100 points difference = 2:1 odds
200 points difference = 3:1 odds
300 points difference = 6:1 odds
400 points difference = 10:1 odds

When Carlsen plays Caruana, it would be like pocketpair vs. overcards in Poker. Caruana on the other hand would be a 2:1 favorite against Leko, which can be quite a burden. Maybe that is the reason why Peter doesn’t get invited to such tournaments anymore.

*These are not the exact numbers, but they are close.